OK, the Oscar Nominations have been announced and here is my…um…analysis of what I think will happen (take this with a grain of salt as I have hardly seen any of these films):
This category has two likely winners and three very little chances
Babel, from everything I have heard, this is a very good film well acted and directed and has gotten great reviews but limited release. This one in my opinion is the front runner for the award and its main competition will be…
The Departed – Now I did see this film and it is really good, extremely well acted by the entire cast and tells a great story.
After that You have Letter from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, and The Queen. None make sense to me to win the award.
I think that once again a director will win this award and a different film will win for best picture. This time the academy will get past its political punishment of Scorcese and finally give him an award. He has only directed some of Hollywood’s biggest films, and Departed was really really good. Clint has two awards already and that will work against him. The director of Babel is a relative unknown, as are the directors of The Queen and that United 93 movie that I don’t ever want to see. He really doesn’t stand a chance since his film isn’t even nominated for best pic.
If Forrest Whitaker doesn’t win, the Academy is nuts, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Peter O’Toole get a pity Oscar. Leonardo DiCaprio was really good in the Departed so he must have been amazing in Blood Diamond. Ryan Gosling…Who? Will Smith will get overlooked again.
By all accounts Helen Mirren is practically a shoe in for the award, however, Meryl Streep should never be overlooked (14th nomination). Kate Winslet will win one eventually, and once again Judi Dench is nominated (when has she done any film not associated with 007 and not been nominated?). Penelope Cruz wont win, but there had to be at least one actress that wasn’t nominated before.
Best Supporting Actor
Now this is an interesting category. Let’s see. Alan Arkin as a heroin addicted grandpa. Djimon Honsou, whom I think is one of the most underrated actors out there. Dr, Nutty Proffessor Doolittle Eddie Murphy (He must have paid somebody for the nomination (but I have heard he is really good in Dreamgirls). And that kid from Bad News Bears. From what I am hearing Murphy will likely win, but the guy I would really love to see win is Mark Walberg. He was just awesome in the Departed. I loved the character and he mastered it.
Best Supporting Actress
Adrianna Barraza – Who?
Rinko Kikuchi – Who?
Abigail Breslin – Child actors don’t usually do that well at the Oscars (personally I think there should be a special category for best child actor of the year) with exceptions to Tatum O’Neill, and Anna Pacquin
Cate Blanchett – a Great actress that has already won an Oscar for playing a multiple Oscar winner
Jennifer Hudson – By all accounts, there is no question that this former American Idol contestant will win this award.
So there it is.
There is actually a good chance that an African American will win three of the four major acting awards this year. And I would have no problem with that. Though my preferences are as follows: The Departed, Martin Scorcese, Forrest Whitaker, Judi Dench, Mark Walberg, Jennifer Hudson.
There it is. Feel free to criticize my analysis all you want.